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I'm trying to calculate various probabilities that would be useful for Settlers of Catan. So far I've tabulated the probability of rolling X in Y turns, the probability of rolling X before Y, and the probability of drawing a victory point within X tries given knowledge of Y knights / progress cards in play.

Can you guys think of any other data / calculations that would be useful for Settlers of Catan?

[Edit] Another calculation I've found extremely useful is "how many of each resource do you need to win the game, assuming you're going for X". I'd love to hear more ideas though, and I don't care how hard / tedious they are to calculate!

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2 Answers 2

Here are some useful calculations: Playing the probabilities in Settlers of Catan

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Thanks, this is a great start! It's unfortunate that the people I play with already knows about these ;-) –  Elliott Jun 12 '11 at 23:21

Dot calculation (5 for 6 and 8, 4 for 5 and 9 etc) is a good starting point, especially at the start of the game.

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