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Most players will tell you that buying booster packs for values is a loosing investment, and for the most part this is true because the average expected value of cards in a set is lower than the retail cost of the booster.

So my question is this:

Which M:tG sets have the highest average expected value, and what is the break-even point for pricing against that set's EV?

I would assume that this set would be one with a high number of mid-priced ($2-5) uncommons, and other commons that help to keep the value of more valuable cards afloat.

My first guess would be Darksteel, as it has a number of commons/uncommons that are well priced for their rarity (Aether Vial, Echoing Truth, Darksteel Citadel, Skullclamp, Darksteel Ingot), is a small set, and has at least two big money cards in the Swords of X and Y.

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Be careful - the ROI can be pretty good until the game goes out of style and they are worth approximately nothing. Remember that this is a game here (a fun one, to be sure, which presently gives every appearance of having good staying power), and that it's popularity could precipitously drop at any moment for no visible reason. – Michael Kohne Jul 25 '12 at 2:37
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@MichaelKohne While that's a fair point, given that it's one that people have been making for a decade now it's starting to lose a little bit of its merit... – Steven Stadnicki Jul 25 '12 at 23:52
@StevenStadnicki - credit where credit is due, WOTC has managed to keep the game fresh and interesting for a lot of fans, and not making changes that drove people away. And if you are going to buy any part of it to try to make a buck, sealed packs is probably the thing to buy (as opposed to individual cards), but it's still a gamble, NOT an investment. – Michael Kohne Jul 26 '12 at 11:27

3 Answers

up vote 5 down vote

Anything after you wait long enough.

Of course, this is assuming you don't actually open the packs, but seriously, take a look at these prices:

$10 for ONE Lorwyn booster pack

$25 for THREE Time Spiral boosters

Over $100 for a Zendikar or Worldwake fat pack

Almost $20 for a Zendikar fat pack box with no cards in it

Since Magic is such a highly collectible game, people will tend to pay more for rarer items. This includes the booster packs themselves. Even though the cards from each of those sets are pretty cheap, the packs themselves are virtually impossible to find, so the price goes skyward. Sure, you could buy some Darksteel boosters and pray you get awesome cards and make a profit, but considering those are around $8 apiece now that's virtually impossible.

The other problem is actually finding people to buy your singles (you could sell in bulk, but that's going to hurt your profits even more). Considering that there's massive websites now that are devoted to nothing but selling singles and aggregate the results from tons of different sellers, you're going to have some tough competition. Even if people learn that they can buy cards from you, you'll have to at least match the prices offered on these sites if you want to stay marketable. You also have to have a LOT of cards available for sale, so get ready to buy 10 booster boxes so you can boast having all the mythic rares in a set (just like every other major card seller will).

The owner of our local card shop does a great business selling fat packs of sets that went out of print over a year ago online, and easily gets more than $80 for them. He personally told me he took all of his money out of the stock market and put it into Magic because the rate of return is infinitely better. See those Avacyn Restored Fat Packs for $35? Imagine what they'll sell for in 2016 and you'll pity yourself for not buying an extra 5 now... (see Steven's informative comment on the block sets generally being a better investment than core sets as well).

I know this isn't exactly what you were asking for, but if you want to make money buying and selling Magic products, actually opening them is probably one of the worst ways to do so IMHO. There's always the risk that prices will go down if the economy worsens or the game goes out of style, but that risk is inherent is virtually any investment nowadays.

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Generally this answer is pretty good, but one cautionary note: core sets are a notoriously bad way of 'investing' in Magic cards. It's only been the last few years that they've been anything but reprints, and generically most of the 'interesting' cards in the core set are either not quite at the power level of the top cards in other sets, or get several years' worth of printing. – Steven Stadnicki Jul 25 '12 at 7:01
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Legal disclaimer: be warned that the value of investments in Magic product (or anything else really) can go down as well as up... – thesunneversets Jul 25 '12 at 9:11
What goes up must come down. Inflation can't last forever. – cdeszaq Jul 25 '12 at 16:21
So tl;dr is: keeping out of print sealed product sealed is universally a better prospect for value appreciation than opening it? :) – Affe Jul 25 '12 at 19:03
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@CrazyJuggleDrummer I'd say you're right but it's the other way around. The card prices lands at a level where they're always above the pack prices. Remember that it is the market that sets the individual card prices. If you'd make money of of packs people would buy packs and sell the cards like crazy until the prices adjusted. That might actually be your shot, the first few weeks the prices of most cards are usually much higher than later. Especially the good cards right before the first big tournament. – AndSoYouCode Aug 21 '12 at 11:07
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up vote 1 down vote

I know I'm somewhat late to the party here. But for the highest rate of return, I would look to see what is being played in eternal formats like Modern, Legacy or Vintage. Cards that are played in multiple decks in eternal formats are usually more expensive than other cards.

For example, Tarmogoyf is played in most green or green-splashed decks such as RUG Delver, Junk, Maverick (sometimes), BUG, etc. and is one of the most expensive cards printed recently.

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up vote 0 down vote

I play mostly Standard Constructed and my observations for it are such that the highest return rate boosters are the ones from the oldest block set that is currently in standard, which is the case up until before a new block is released.

For example once the Innistrad block came out the most return rate would be in the Scars of Mirrodin boosters e.g. the dual lands shot up in price.

This would not apply for non-standard players. As mentioned above Zendikar is absolutely very expensive because of the full artwork lands and the fetches.

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