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Starting off with Fools' Landing being flooded is certainly a set-back, but all is not lost! Naturally, due to its crucial nature, if Fools' Landing does become flooded, shoring it up becomes a top priority. Your first option is to immediately move adjacent to Fools' Landing, if you can, and use an action to shore up. Failing that, any player can play a ...

A friendly warning: This is a looong answer. I've calculated the chances of Fools' Landing being lost immediately after the first turn with all players playing to prevent it and a random tile setup. A few variables: n = number of players w = water level after rising once (2 for Novice, 3 for everything else) Special abilities/actions First, ...

Summary The probability of losing in the first turn due to Fool's Landing sinking, assuming all players try their hardest to avoid it, is dependent on the difficultly level and the number of players n: Difficultly | n | Probability Novice | 2 | 0.00199 Novice | 3 | 0.00122 Novice | 4 | 0.00071 Normal/Elite | 2 | 0.00291 Normal/Elite | 3 ...

You didn't mention how many players were in that game, but if I assume there were two, here are the probabilities of that happening to you: Step 1 - Having Fools landing be flooded before the game starts - 25% (1 in 4) Step 2 - Drawing a water rise card on your first turn (either 1st or 2nd treasure card) 24% chance - P(atleast 1 water rise card) = ...