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16

A reasonable empirical measure of luck is the probability that the best player can beat a good player in a given game. So if you can get data about a large player population (I have done this with Race for the Galaxy), you can get an implicit measure by looking at the Elo rating difference at various skill percentiles. On the other hand, this only tells ...


9

You didn't lay out criteria in your question so I'm going to assume that what you're asking is: Let's say Bob diligently acquires as much skill as possible in Monopoly and practices with 50 or more games. If Bob plays several beginners (10 or fewer games - little study of the game), and no players know other players' skill level - is Bob highly likely to ...


7

Think about the Elo Rating System used to measure the relative skill of Chess players. This is essentially an equation that takes a series of wins and losses and produces a number that can be used to predict the chances of one player winning a game against another player. One of the inputs to the equation is a "distribution" that describes how much a ...


6

It would depend on the game. Certainly for games that involve rolling dice, the probability of certain events happening can be easily calculated. For games where dice are thrown or cards or drawn, there are some games where some outcomes can really change the flow of the game. There are also games where random events actually have minimal affect on the ...


5

In my experience, the most effective way to reduce luck at the beginning is to give players a choice of two start worlds. A world you know will be on the table the whole game is a much bigger deal than four cards, of which you'll likely only play one or two, and sometimes none. The implementation of Race for the Galaxy at keldon.net does this. (Side note: ...


5

Rob's answer on using a large population database to evaluate the roll of luck is absolutely the way to go--assuming this data is available. But the question also seems interested in how to evaluate the roll of luck during game design, when no such data is available. In this context, the question is about how to model or simulate a game to test the ...


5

No, not in my experience. In fact, the Catan Card Game has a great depth of strategy and many ways to offset the luck of the dice. Your chances will be greatly helped if you've found a Scout card, certainly. It should ALWAYS be one of your starting cards if you have the chance. If you don't, then you know there's one in the three stacks that neither of you ...


5

There's a modicum of skill involved. You can do some things to increase the odds that random draws will go your way. Any or all of these could be used to augment Basic Player's behavior. Recognize that some keepers appear more often in goals. Prioritize The Brain and generally anything to do with food. Playing keepers toward the current goal is usually ...


4

You pretty much answered this question already. While I haven't heard of 4-pack 30 card sealed yet,I would say this is the format that is the most dependent on luck. A single bomb in a 30 card deck has a much larger impact than in a 40 card deck, for 2 reasons: 1) With 4 packs, opponents have a lower chance to equalize a single bomb of yours with at least 2 ...


3

First, there is a quite elusive difference between chance and luck, but it is worth noticing before analysing either concept deeper. Any non-deterministic event during the game is necessarily a chance component; but its effect on a given game situation may be exactly neutral (either in practical terms in a unique situation, or in some general, ...


3

I do not have a full answer to this question but I have the beginnings of an answer, which I hope is supplanted by a better one. This answer assumes that game rules are strictly followed, with no cheating or imperfect components. (In other words, no loaded dice, or imperfect dice whose imperfections can be observed after many thousands of rolls, etc.) The ...


3

I think this thing of skill in games tends to be a little of too much pride and taking the game a bit more serious than it should. In general I think it's best just to take a high risk once in a while if you think that 'luck' is not going your way; if you loose laugh about it and enjoy the game :) Onto the house rules to modify results: Die result for ...


3

Back to the root of your question, one way I've found to diminish the role of luck in Carcassonne is to have all players draw a "hand" of tiles (3 to 5 seems to work well), and then on each turn you draw a tile and then play any tile from your hand. When there are no more tiles to draw at the end of the game, you just play one of the tiles from your hand ...


2

I think it's rather self-evident that 6-pack 40-card sealed, has less of a luck component than 4-pack 30 card sealed. As mentioned by @Hackworth, you're much more likely to see a rare bomb in a 30-card pack than a 40-card one. It's definitely going to be hard to judge, but I wouldn't overestimate the gulf in “luck” between 6-pack sealed and draft. There are ...


1

Is Fluxx a game of skill or luck? Yes, yes it is. It is also a game of skill AND luck. A fortunate deal can give you the game, but only if you have the ability to play it correctly. Continually getting the 'wrong' cards can mean that you'll never win, but a skilled player can mitigate that. You can't look at the colour grey and ask if it's black ...


1

I know exactly what you mean and I've wanted some sort of ranking/rating system as well, in part because how "mean" a game is depends in part on how much luck is involved (mean games being ones where non-winning players feel as though they lost due to choices targeted at them by other players; Diplomacy is probably just about the meanest game out there). ...


1

I think you're asking the wrong question. Instead of asking about how some nebulous term (such as 'luck') applies to any particular game, what if we ask instead "how much effect can random chance have on the outcome of a game?" Now we suddenly have an answerable question! A game like Chess or Go has no random factors in it, so the answer would be "none". ...



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