Hot answers tagged statistics
14
Statistically, I think the Axis get the short end. I tried finding some web site specifically discussing stats on various countries, but came up empty, so you'll have to settle for qualitative data from me at least.
I havn't played this game in years, but I always like playing Russia. I would say Russia is the best in terms of fun to play, but it's not ...
11
Answering the question with AAMC bid statistics
Others have explained why the Axis have a significant disadvantage in the 2nd Edition rules. I'll attempt to provide hard evidence and quantify this advantage. The popular play-by-email (PBEM) site Axis and Allies Members Club (which I have no affiliation with and which I hadn't logged onto in years until I ...
8
councilroom.com hosts stats for millions of online games played at dominion.isotropic.org.
It's currently down but it should give you the most accurate answer when it goes back up again.
For example, here is a ranking of the best openings from google's cache
7
Greed (a.k.a. Farkle) has an extensive amount of statistical analysis done on the game.
Now that you have updated your question, here is my updated answer.
If you want to maximize your score, what you need to figure out is what is your expected score if you risk rolling, compared to your score if you choose not to roll. So, the first thing you need to ...
7
Key assumption: Every player places both of their initial settlements according to what will get them the most resources (so we don't have people going for port combos, weird 12/2 superstitions, etc.)
I just downloaded the rules and have the Beginner's Setup in front of me. If you don't, then this won't make any sense!
We all agree that it suffices to ...
7
A friendly warning: This is a looong answer.
I've calculated the chances of Fools' Landing being lost immediately after the first turn with all players playing to prevent it and a random tile setup.
A few variables:
n = number of players
w = water level after rising once (2 for Novice, 3 for everything else)
Special abilities/actions
First, ...
7
At the start of the game, the Allies have a significant advantage over the Axis due a variety of reasons, including:
Their combined economic power
The fact that there are three Allies playing against two Axis
US's economic strength and the fact that its richest territories are virtually safe from attack due to their distance from the European and Asian ...
6
Meaningful decisions per hour is one of several contributory factors, not the only one.
Other important components of "fun", at least for me, include:
high ratio of meaningful decisions to total decisions
Interesting choices to make in those decisions
Interesting setting/backstory
visual appeal
link of setting/backstory/theme to mechanics.
It's ...
5
The article on Shuffling at the Wikipedia discusses the famous paper by Persi Diaconis and Dave Bayer which shows that a 52 card deck of cards doesn't become random until the fifth shuffle, and requires seven shuffles to become "truly" random.
Your question "Are there any other methods of cuttings of the deck or shuffle types that create a more random ...
5
I have a couple of friends who used to play a lot of settlers online. Apparently there was once a site that had a lot of settlers data, but it went down. You can see some of the archived data at the settlers 3d web.archive.org page.
There is now a forum in its place. Maybe some of the posters there have a backup of the data?
5
Summary
The probability of losing in the first turn due to Fool's Landing sinking, assuming all players try their hardest to avoid it, is dependent on the difficultly level and the number of players n:
Difficultly | n | Probability
Novice | 2 | 0.00199
Novice | 3 | 0.00122
Novice | 4 | 0.00071
Normal/Elite | 2 | 0.00291
Normal/Elite | 3 ...
4
With Ticket to ride, 3-5 riffle shuffles should be sufficient to randomize the deck sufficiently for play. As long as the runs of matched cards aren't 5-6 cards long, it's not a big issue.
I'll note that japanese style block shuffling is inadequate for TTR until about the 9th or time through the deck, which I discovered due to using sleeved cards in ...
4
These were all more or less directly copied from the source attributed at the bottom of the answer:
Directly rolling a particular number (e.g. 2) 30.55%
Rolling a particular double (e.g. 3-3) 2.77%
Rolling a particular non-double (e.g. 5-1) 5.54%
Rolling any double 16.66%
Chance of getting off the bar with one or two pieces and X open points:
...
4
The answers to your questions depend on the details of how you score the game. For example, Facebook Farkle scores three pairs as 750 points, Gaby Vanhegan's Zilch implementation scores it as 1500 points, and Wikipedia's entry on Greed scores it as 800. These and other scoring differences affect the expected value of rolls and ultimately the optimal play ...
4
While I up-voted Pieter's answer, there are some additional points I might add. Different scoring methods can be crucially important to how you play the game of bridge. If you understand those differences, it might even make up a pure skill differential between two pairs.
For example, if I compare IMPS versus matchpoints scoring, at IMPS scoring (thus teams ...
3
With every card game I play I do a mix of Riffle, Stripping, and Mongean-Stripping Combo. I generally intermix these in a random order with a random number of times, usually at least 3.
I've found that mixing shuffling techniques, especially in a random order, will result in a fairly nice card distribution and randomization.
3
The card that immediately pops to mind:
Here's an article on dominionstrategy.com which outlines why this card is considered the best in the game. No other card allows you to shape your deck so quickly and early, ensuring you get useful and powerful draws to ramp up your deck.
If you look at the best openings ranking linked by Dor Shemer, you'll see many ...
3
I would estimate between 60%-70%. The best strategy to use when attempting to survive for 70 days, is to try to avoid wounds. If the wounds that the Barbarian Prince receives are ever 1 less than his Endurance (fall unconscious), or greater than or equal to his Endurance you lose the game. This basically means that we need to avoid combat at all costs. The ...
3
There are a few problems with finding data. The first is finding any data. I would recommending emailing/contacting sites that offer Catan or Catan-esque games for play to see if they keep records of games played. I found a short list of potential sites with a little searching via Google. (Do note that I have not verified any of those sites.)
The second ...
3
(disclaimer: i haven't played button men seriously in ages, but i'll share my impressions from back in the day)
My feeling is that Lab Rats is the best button, as its 2-dice will allow skill-attacks on far better dice than it has to give away. Bunnies, with its 1-dice is also strong, but can too-often get trapped into not being able to make any attacks.
...
3
As Eric Murray famously said in the case of Crown vs St. Clair Bridge Club:
"The game [rubber bridge] is only one of luck when played as the
justices of the Ontario Superior Court play it in closed chambers."
That is of course the same Eric Murray of the Canadian partnership Murray & Kehela that was widely ranked the third best in the world ...
2
It depends on how you define "best" country.
If you mean, "easiest country to play," probably U.S.A.
If you mean "most multifacted," perhaps Japan.
If you mean "most vulnerable," and like the adrenalin of an early brush with "death," before coming back from behind, then Russia.
If you mean "most challenging" (in terms of difficulty of finding a clear ...
2
For Ticket to Ride, as cards are turned in I distribute them across up to six stacks, trying to not place cards on top of like cards (orange does not go on top of orange). Sometimes a card gets tucked to the bottom of a stack. When it comes time to shuffle, the stacks get shuffled together pair by pair (stack 1 with 2, then 3 with 4, etc.), ultimately ...
2
Generally speaking, I shuffle using a combination of overhand and Hindu shuffle. I start with the pack in my left hand, pluck out the middle half with my right, and then proceed to drop blocks of cards alternatively onto the top and then bottom of the pack, using a quick flick of fingers or thumb to swap between cards dropping onto the top or bottom of the ...
2
There was a "Button Men Online" website until recently that had amassed HUGE quantities of statistics on different Button Men competing (albeit being controlled by people users on the site). If you could get a hold of that data, that might answer your questions.
I've messaged @cheapassjames on twitter, he might have the data. Possibly, you could contact the ...
2
it is also easier to go for the longest road when you start in fourth or third. keep that in mind.
To me, it all depends on the board : like if there is one supreme location and players takes it... but that's kind of rare. There are usually 4 honestly good places and then it gets worse, so the advantage of being first is not that good to me.
2
Shields are not very effective during the first round.
First, it should be noted that the negative effects of the Pirate, and the Combat Zone adventure cards are some what avoidable. In the Pirate encounter case, if you make sure that your ship has 5+ Laser power, you will not be shot at. With the Combat Zone, you just need to make sure that you don't have ...
2
Try this, it's a system called Whole-History Rating. From the abstract:
Whole-History Rating (WHR) is a new method to estimate the
time-varying strengths of players involved in paired comparisons. Like
many variations of the Elo rating system, the whole-history approach
is based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model. But, instead of using
...
1
I find it's more important to get a solid, sizeable piece in early than it is to worry about exactly what that piece is. Since you're building in real time against opponents, part of the strategy is not letting them have the chance to take all the good pieces. Solid choices are most 4-ways, or cargo, or a gun/engine at the ship bottom. Avoid powered pieces ...
1
I'd learn the chances for the roll combinations. There are 36 possible rolls, (let's say of one red and one green die) as follows:
6-6: 1/36
11: 2/36 (two 6-5s)
5-5: 1/36
10: 2/36 (two 6-4s)
9: 4/36 (two 6-3s, two 5-4s)
4-4: 1/36
8: 4/36 (two 6-2s, two 5-3s)
7: 6/36 (two 6-1s, two 5-2s, two 4-3s)
3-3: 1/36
6: 4/36 (two 5-1s, two 4-2s)
...
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