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Oct
25
comment What are the odds of getting the following hands in euchre?
Hi Firefeather. I've been reading through some of the older posts recently, and I don't think the calculations above are quite right. I think you're right that you can ignore ordering, but in that case the total number of hands isn't 24*23*22*21*20, it's that divided by 5*4*3*2*1 (or 24C5). Also I didn't follow the logic in scenario 2 when it came to looking at the four remaining cards.
Oct
5
comment What are the chances of losing Pandemic on the first turn?
@bwarner Jefromi - I agree - trying to stop the chain reactions would definitely be an improvement on the above strategies. I'll have a look at simulating it when I get a chance.
Aug
16
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
@user1873 Great! Let me know if you want any further bits broken down.
Aug
15
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
P(No sandbags | v=1) = P(No sandbags given v=1) = P(The one non-WR card is not a sandbags card) =(23-2n)/(25-2n)
Aug
15
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
Breaking it down: P(v=1) = (2 orderings)*(3 ways to pick a WR)*(25-2n ways to not pick a WR)/(total ways to pick two ordered cards) = 6(25-2n)/((28-2n)(27-2n))
Aug
10
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
@user1873 I ran a script and came up with the diver's chance of not being able to reach Fool's Landing as 4611612/18574248 which is about 25%. It's more than the explorer, but less than everyone else, so sounds about right. If anyone wants to either check my (horrific) code, or calculate it independently then let me know!
Aug
10
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
The six card discard pile isn't shuffled into the deck. It's shuffled and placed on top of the deck - increasing the odds that FL is redrawn to w/6.
Aug
9
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
Oh - just saw that user1873 posted the same thing :-)
Aug
9
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
This is a really good start, but I think a big issue with this at the moment is that you haven't considered the diver separately. I can't see an easy way to calculate the number of squares he can't reach, it may need to be scripted.
Aug
9
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
Maybe I've misread, but I don't think the chance of getting a helicopter/sandbags card to start with is 5/2n. This is >1 for two players :-) Instead I think it's 1-(20 C (2n))/(25 C (2n)) (where C is the "combinations" function), which is ~0.62 for 2 players, ~0.78 for 3 players, and ~0.88 for 4 players.
Aug
9
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
I haven't read this through yet, but looks good. Just wanted to note that w = 2 if you're playing on novice: boardgamegeek.com/image/1001886/forbidden-island
Aug
9
comment How likely are you to lose because Fool's Landing sinks into the abyss?
+1 What a good question :-) I hadn't thought of the possibility of losing first turn due to someone sinking into the abyss. Definitely possible, but you've got to be really unlucky!
Aug
8
comment Programme to help with face to face diplomacy
Hi dsas! Thanks for the suggestion - in the end I did use jDip, and it was perfect for my needs. We then used VNC to relay the map to other computers in conference rooms.
Aug
7
comment Can't remember the name of this card game
Is it anything like Slam or Ligretto? boardgames.about.com/od/spit/a/spit_rules.htm en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ligretto
Jul
20
comment Would a turn order opposite the disprove order affect the strategy or gameplay in Clue?
Shouldn't one of the words "left" in the yellow section above be "right"? Or is this a quote from the original rules?
Jul
11
comment Dice with an average roll of zero?
+1, but by "average, median and mean" did you mean "mean, median and mode"?
Jun
29
comment How to counter oddities of Shade-Tree Checkers? (long distance king jumps, etc)
To level the playing field you could change more of the rules, so that neither of you are familiar with the game? Maybe not most constructive of comments :-)
Jun
1
comment Does it really matter if dice are randomized?
One fairly obvious way to cheat with a die (that I've seen used) is to spin the die rather than rolling it. For a standard six sided die in particular this makes it easy to aim for 4/5/6.
May
24
comment Maximum attainable points for a single player in a two player game of Carcassonne
The question is here: math.stackexchange.com/questions/149125/…
May
24
comment Maximum attainable points for a single player in a two player game of Carcassonne
I'll put a question on the maths site, that's a good idea. Your calculation of 114 points (6 points short) is not really right, as there are an extra 6 points to be scored by connecting around the sides of the lines (e.g. the seven-city farm can be connected to the two end cities in the row of eight).