Where to find MTG statistics: Starting player winrate, average turns, polarity?

Question

A question about MTG statistics:

There are several MTG statistics websites (e.g. AetherHub, MTGArenaPro), which do a great job to provide specific statistics about how good individual cards and decks are doing. However, there are some more general metrics I am interested in and can't find anywhere. Namely:

• Winrate when starting first/second, for BO1 & BO3
• How many turns doesan average game take (histogram, if possible)
• Polarity of the meta (Originally used in Hearthstone, it is a measure of rock-paper-scissors of the metagame. Here, polarity=0 would mean that for any two tier 1 decks the winrate of one against another would be approximately 50%, whereas polarity=1 would mean that for any two tier 1 decks the winrate of one against another would be approximately 100%)

If you know of a website that computes any of these three, please tell me. I am not sure why I can't find them anywhere. Maybe it is somehow unethical to ask these questions? If this is the case, tell me as well

Answer 1

Wizards of the Coast deliberately obscures this data.

Several years ago, some fans created a website that used bots to automatically crawl Magic the Gathering Online's matches to construct a table containing the meta percentages and the win/loss rates of each deck. However, Wizards later changed how MtGO's systems worked with the specific goal of preventing this, much to the disappointment of the MtG competitive scene. They stated that this was done in order to slow down the process of "solving" the meta.

To quote the article they posted announcing this:

As stewards of Magic, we in R&D feel that this action is necessary to prevent data mining that contributes to Constructed formats growing stale before their time. At its essence, Magic is best when it's a game of exploration and puzzle-solving: this is why providing new formats and new experiences are so important. By gathering large sets of data from Magic Online events, a given format too-rapidly changes from exciting exploration to cold statistical analysis. While the analysis may be fascinating, it generally makes for far less compelling gameplay. This leads to reduced enthusiasm about the analyzed format, which in turn ultimately hurts not just Magic content creators worldwide, but the game as a whole.

Answer 2

Winrate when going first and second: this is clearly going to depend on the format, and since all the commonly-played formats are changing over time, this data will never remain up-to-date. Wizards does not publish the data, so it's up to players to find as much information as they can.

There is nonetheless some data available:

Play or draw?

The Trouble with Toss-Ups: Going First in Standard (in particular this image)

You can find your own winrates by using a deck tracker, such as this.

How many turns does an average game take: not aware of any statistics of this sort, and it's clearly going to be extremely matchup dependent.

Polarity of the meta: If we knew the win rates of every deck against every other deck, we'd be on easy street. Unfortunately we don't, and besides individual card choices or sideboard plans can have a huge impact on win rate.

This source is the closest I'm aware of.

Answer 3

I have to say WoTc nailed it in that article linked regarding meta changes. We have seen this happening in Mtg Arena. Im glad they have welcomed 3rd party plug-ins for Mtga. That being said you should check out the Trackers and their websites for Arena. The fact that WoTc doesnt have a shelf life for MTGO the trackers could extend their support if the demand in there. There's 2 ways stats are gathered from arena

1. Reading the output log. I dont know if MTGO has one
2. Reading from memory as matches happen live.

These are some of the Stats Trackers not mentioned in other comments MTGAtool.com MtTGAHelper.com Untapped.gg (They do the hearthstone live stats and the retired Lotus Tracker) Might be your best bet for MTGO integration they seem to have a bit more corporate structure MTGAZone.com Draft stats for the above tracker use the same sources for set ratings in draft

17lands is another one but is strictly for Draft Stats and only uses stats aggregated from active users of their tracker. To be honest they are putting together some pretty cool and useful stats and comparisons. They have been around for over a year but are just now getting the recognition.