# A Couple of Hearts Probabilities

Here's what I don't get. I've played a lot of Hearts for many years - thousands of games I'm sure. The number of times I've played a low heart, and the trick has gone 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H seems way out of probable reality. But the number of times I've seen all four players play the any of the same value card (e.g. 6C, 6D, 6H, 6S) is once. Why is the probability of 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H any lower than any 4 same value cards? In my naiveté it seems that in both cases, the probability calls for 4 players to have a specific card at the same time. Can anyone explain it to me like a 4 year old?

• xkcd.com/1364 Commented Jun 30, 2014 at 22:23
• The fact that you see 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H seems surprising. If the player stuck with the 5 is trying not to accumulate hearts, I'd expect that player to slap down the largest heart card he has. If he's trying to shoot the moon, then the 5 makes sense. Commented Jul 1, 2014 at 0:42
• Sorry for not being clearer - the cards most times do not appear in that order but more likely 5H, 4H, 3H, 2H or some other combination started by the 4H or 5H. Thanks for your comments Commented Jul 8, 2014 at 16:00
• I'm pretty sure most 4 year olds don't understand probability either. Commented Oct 14, 2014 at 12:46