I won some magic the gathering 10th edition core set booster packs, are they worth anything? Or should I open to get rare cards? Also have 2 core sets — Molimo's might and Exincar's tyranny — and a 2 player starter game that includes 2 booster packs from 10th edition.
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1Related: Which MTG booster packs have the highest rate of return on investment?– doppelgreenerCommented Feb 2, 2015 at 1:57
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2I've removed those questions you added. We don't do on-the-spot price evaluations, I don't think - and if you have a separate question, please ask it separately unless you're doing something like clarifying what you were originally trying to ask here anyway. (Since you already have a pretty solid question, I suggest just asking the new stuff separately if at all.) You can get to the bits I removed in your revision history, which you can visit at any time via the 'edited X time ago' link at the bottom center of your post.– doppelgreenerCommented Feb 4, 2015 at 12:30
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2 Answers
Logically speaking, it would never make sense for the expected value of an opened pack to be higher than the value of an unopened pack. If that was ever the case, people would just buy unopened packs, open them, and sell them for a net profit. Unopened packs have the potential to have a high value, and that potential reward comes with an associated increase in cost.
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Actually the comparison of value and expected value of booster pack depends on the affinity for risk of buyers among others. For example if you were buying a car, but the dealer offered you a deal where you have 5% chance you won't get a car, but pay 95% of a price, most people wouldn't accept that kind of a deal. But if you could pay 1% for a 1 in 100 chance to win a car, that's more likely.– SzymonCommented Mar 13, 2018 at 23:15
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Basically people are not really spending and obtaining money, they are comparing their quality of life in three scenarios: losing, winning and not playing, account for perceived chance to win and arrive at decision. People who buy one booster or two are going to write it off as hazard and accept low EV. People who buy many are actually paying premium for the experience of randomness, which is part of the collecting thing for them. Otherwise they would just not buy boosters worth below EV.– SzymonCommented Mar 13, 2018 at 23:18
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So if only pragmatic people, not caring for the fun of boosters and trading, buying large quantities of cards remained, boosters packs price would have to be below EV in long term, because they would actually need to be compensated for having to get rid of the cards they don't need. Boosters would perhaps be worth more than EV only in the beginning, when people would be paying premium for early access to cards. Somebody has to buy those boosters after all, or no card would be available in after market.– SzymonCommented Mar 13, 2018 at 23:20
You can find the higher value 10th edition cards here: http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/10th-edition
Packs of 10th edition have recently sold on ebay for around $8.50, if that option interests you.
The expected value of an opened pack of 10th edition, accounting only for rares values from mtgstocks.com, is about $2.38 — according to their page on the M10 set.
Your best bet is to sell the pack.
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I've added what I think is the source for that $2.38 figure. Is it, or did you derive that figure some other way? It would be worth noting how, so that others can check your work or determine the same in the future when prices change. Commented Feb 2, 2015 at 11:13
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I disagree with your conclusion... just because your expected value from an opened pack is less than the value from an unopened pack doesn't automatically mean that you should sell the unopened pack. You also have to consider potential value. The person may be in a situation where receiving $8.50 is just meaningless to him, so he'd rather take a shot at making a lot more, even if it means he likely gets less. Or he may be in a place where that $8.50 could mean a lot to him. Commented Feb 2, 2015 at 15:59
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1@GendoIkari In theory that could be a reason to open the pack, but 10th looks like it doesn't really have much of value. There are only about 5 cards that are worth more than $8.50, and at most you are getting about $20 over the value of the pack (and that is 1/121 packs) the rest of the time is you manage to make money on the pack it is only going to be around $1-3.– diegoCommented Feb 2, 2015 at 16:16
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1@doppelgreener The link you added is for M10 not 10th Ed., for some reason the 10th Ed. page doesn't have the EV of a pack.– diegoCommented Feb 2, 2015 at 16:35
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@Gendolkari I gave a brief analysis of his options, and links to the more notable cards from Tenth Edition. My opinion is merely aligned with EV of pack open/closed. If he wanted to gamble it up or hope for specific cards the resources are there. Commented Feb 2, 2015 at 19:14