Catan starting strategies -- actual data?

Question

I'm new to Settlers of Catan, and I quickly learned the importance of having a source of Brick and Lumber at the start of the game. And some googling showed that others agree ... and others disagree.

Whatever you value most at the start ... brick, wood, grain, ore, (ok, not wool so much), diversity of resources, diversity of numbers, access to ports, etc., you can find a blog post confirming your belief.

What is much harder to find is actual data. Has there been any significant study of competitive games and/or computer simulations that give substantial support to a particular initial placement strategy?

Answer 1

Although I wouldn't call it a "significant study" as far as initial placement strategies, there is a blog that I found a while ago which gets into an analysis of playing (and winning) SoC from a mathematical perspective.

The blog is called "Developing Catan", and includes the application of several types of mathematical analysis to the game based on the writer's personal experience playing SoC on a frequent basis, both in person and online. In particular, some of the analysis in this pdf discusses probabilities of winning without starting on any particular resource, which answers at least part of your question.

Answer 2

In my experience as a board game enthusiast/collector I find that many players of varying experience levels will first access the board from a statistical standpoint. The tiles that hold numbers 5 to 9 are the most likely to generate the greatest amount of resources over the course of the game and therefore are the most desirable. Ergo a good starting position would be on the intersection of as many of these numbers as possible such as 8-5-9. If you prefer the "port" strategy look for these numbers (especially 6 and 8) that are adjacent to a port and attempt to work around that. Remember you also gain resources from your second placement. Even if the most desirable spaces have been taken, you may be able to get a quintessential resource from a starting village. Looking at resources, wood and brick are typically essential to winning, however wheat is the most diverse because it is used for 3 of 4 developments. With that said, through observation, I have found that a port strategy works the best, when there is a title adjacent to a resource of its type along with another one of those tiles holding a "desirable" number. Other than that I would say a solid placement regardless of strategy would be to place adjacent to as many desirable numbers (worst case scenario, you have allot of goods you don't need) and if needed using your second placement to gain resources you deem "hard to get".