# When testing a deck, what % of rejected hands is acceptable?

Good deck construction minimizes luck. I am about to enter my first tournament (Pauper). In addition to testing my deck against other decks in actual games, I simulate initial hands and first few cards using deckbox.org to help to fine tune it.

It is clear from simulation that I would have to mulligan at least a quarter of my hands. I would assume that beyond a certain mulligan percentage, a deck cannot possibly be competitive in a Pauper tournament.

While there may be special cases where a mulligan does not confer much of a disadvantage, let's assume for the purpose of this question that this deck is average in the sense that each time the initial hand is decreased by a card, it hurts chances of winning quite a bit.

Beyond what percentage of hands requiring mulligan would a deck be considered non-competitive? If someone has actually studied this question statistically, please provide a link to the study.

• I don't think this quite answers your question, but it's a bunch of useful detail-oriented math: channelfireball.com/articles/… – Alex P Apr 6 '15 at 5:42
• My thoughts are that this question will have to be answered experimentally instead of mathematically. On that note, I asked another related question. Hopefully the answer to that one will provide a basis for answering this one. – Rainbolt Apr 6 '15 at 15:47
• @Rainbolt I agree that tabulating the info from tournaments would asking the question. I hope your question gets answered and that mulligan data is included. Though a completely different game, I recorded data for the game Cosmic Encounter when I was a teenager and was able to answer the question, "Which powers are best" with real data. This MTG question is answerable if someone has collected data. – Joe Golton Apr 6 '15 at 16:16
• On the other hand, it does depend on the deck: a deck that mulligans more often than average isn't necessarily worse. So while tournament data (restricted to top N places to avoid bad players/bad decks?) might get you a general idea, it's definitely helpful to have answers that think through some things as well. – Cascabel Apr 7 '15 at 0:03
• As stated, I think this question is too broad - it depends too much on many different variables, including the power of individual cards, the power of cards in conjunction with other cards, how that changes with matchups, etc. – Hao Ye Apr 7 '15 at 0:03