French Tarot (card game): Feasibility of playing a King on the first hand

Question

I had a little debate with some friends about the feasibility of a certain type of play and wanted to get the communities opinion.

The question is whether playing a King(Regent) on the first hand is a good play or not in terms of probability. The reason is that there is a risk of someone being completely out of that suite and having the 1 of Trumps, playing that, and thereby getting roughly 10 points on the first hand. The idea is that even though this is relatively rare, the impact of it is so great it is not worth playing a King in this situation.

If we assume a 4-player game and you are on the defense, my argument is that the odds of the attacker being in this situation is the same (or slightly higher) than each of the other 2 defenders. However, since there are two defenders the overall odds of someone taking the 1 of trumps on the first hand are in favor of the defense. And the defense acquiring the 1 of trumps is just as important as the attacker acquiring it.

One counter argument I was told was that even if the attacker does have at least one of that that suite, then you can just wait for them to play it and play your King then and still win that hand. I think there is some merit to this, but feel my argument above is stronger.

Answer 1

Tarot is not poker. It is not a matter of probability and psychology, wishing that your opponent will bend over you. It is matter of card strength and strategy.

Do not play randomly your King (and its 4.5 points!) if you do not know if your opponent have cards of the same suit or not. It is far too risky for such a card. It is like playing the 1 of trumps randomly, wishing that your opponent will not have the trump card to take it. Play your King only if you are sure that your opponent will not take it. Kings have got too much points to be played randomly, because statistics say that it will likely win.

The only risk you can take is the following: Attackers often perform "coupes franches" (I do not know the English name) on one suit only. If this suit is revealed and if your King does not belong to this suit, the attacker will likely not be able to double it and will not take it.

If you love statistics, Wikipedia has got tables for this : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_tarot#Strategy But just like I said before, tarot is not poker and statistics does not matter in this game.