Both sides vulnerable, South dealt and bid one heart. West overcalled one spade, North three hearts, East three spades, South four hearts, East four spades, South five hearts.
West held (s) KQJT8 (h) 2 (d) K93 (c) JT32, and led the K of spades. The column characterized the lead as "natural," but called it an error, because leading the 3 of diamonds would have beaten the contract. (East had the A, West the K, and East a "side" trick.) In the actual hand, South captured the K of spades with the A, and then successfully "sluffed" two diamond losers).
Is there any widely accepted theory or statistical study (e.g. a Monte Carlo simulation) that would lead one to believe that the 3 of diamonds is the better lead a priori, based on the bidding? Or am I right to believe that the columnist was "resulting," based on this one hand?
If the lead of the 3 of diamonds was statistically inferior, but made by an expert, would it just be considered a mistake, on would it be grounds for potential discipline, based on the assumption that the expert had more knowledge of the hand that he was entitled to?