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You are playing the 6p Game of Thrones (2nd Ed) as Greyjoy.

At the end of the first round, everyone still has exactly 5 power tokens. At the start of the second, a bidding on the influence tracks occurs.

What is an optimal bidding strategy so that:

  • you keep the Valyrian Steel Blade
  • you get at least 4th place (one star) on the Messenger Raven

Obviously, it's not possible in worst case scenarios and there are a lot of variables. Still I'm interested in:

  • game theory analysis (including or not what different houses find valuable)
  • personal experience (statistics for the distribution of tokens in similar situations)

My current observations:

  • Most people tend to find the Raven (or specifically the stars) most valuable and the Blade the least valuable
  • The Blade is most valuable for house Greyjoy (at least early on)
  • I've been put in a similar situation on a couple of occasions. I found that bidding 3 power tokens on the Blade and 2 on the Raven has left me still owning the Blade, but tied for 4th place for the Raven.
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The answer to this question will be very heavily dependent on your group, and their groupthink. In my experience, often bidding 3 on the blade would not result in getting it (I would probably be 2nd or 3rd, with someoen else going all in on the sword), while a bid of 2 on the Raven would probably be enough to get me at least one star (with someone else bidding zero after going all in on the sword).

Given that there is a large advantage of having the Sword token, versus simply being 2nd on that track, I think your strategy of bidding enough to get the Sword makes sense.

From a game theory perspective, since all bids are spent, you want to bid just ahead of a large clump of opponent bids, such that you gain a significant advantage over them while only paying slightly more. If this is not possible, it might be best to bid 0 in that case.

If your group very consistently lets you win the sword for 3 (but not less), and consistently does not let you get stars with a bid of 2 on the Raven, then I would recommend bidding 3 on the Sword and 0 on the Raven, conserving your power, and then bidding higher on the Raven in the second bidding round. Also, if your group tends to always bid the same amounts like this, they are very exploitable game-theory wise. Bid either just above their usual bids, or way under them.

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    Interesting, I've never seen a non Greyjoy player go all in on the blade the first bidding. Obviously it's you know how other people are going to play you can exploit that. The question is about an inherently superior strategy. If you play against 5 random people you've never met, what are you going to do in this situation. My experience is being put in this situation just twice. Also your suggestion that keeping the two tokens as opposed to risking them might be a good idea only if there is a second bidding immediately after. Other players are going to win more tokens than you even have two t
    – ndnenkov
    Jun 10, 2016 at 5:22

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