I'm trying to calculate various probabilities that would be useful for Settlers of Catan. So far I've tabulated the probability of rolling X in Y turns, the probability of rolling X before Y, and the probability of drawing a victory point within X tries given knowledge of Y knights / progress cards in play.

Can you guys think of any other data / calculations that would be useful for Settlers of Catan?

[Edit] Another calculation I've found extremely useful is "how many of each resource do you need to win the game, assuming you're going for X". I'd love to hear more ideas though, and I don't care how hard / tedious they are to calculate!

3 Answers 3


Here are some useful calculations: Playing the probabilities in Settlers of Catan

  • Thanks, this is a great start! It's unfortunate that the people I play with already knows about these ;-)
    – Elliott
    Commented Jun 12, 2011 at 23:21

Dot calculation (5 for 6 and 8, 4 for 5 and 9 etc) is a good starting point, especially at the start of the game.


A useful statistic/calculation is the various combinations of settlements, cities, and development cards that add up to 10 VPs. Also the best combinations according to general terrain production.

  • Development cards that give 10 VP's? Is this a serious answer? Commented Jul 21, 2015 at 15:31
  • @ToonKrijthe Sounds like he's saying that which combinations of the three listed things add up to 10 points is an example of a useful calculation.
    – GendoIkari
    Commented Jul 21, 2015 at 20:41
  • Ok, that could be the case. Commented Jul 21, 2015 at 20:52

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