I never buy development cards in the beginning: the Knights are fairly useless, the Largest Army bonus is not a priority, and it's too risky to gamble on drawing a Road Building card.
When is the best time to start buying development cards?
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Sign up to join this communityI never buy development cards in the beginning: the Knights are fairly useless, the Largest Army bonus is not a priority, and it's too risky to gamble on drawing a Road Building card.
When is the best time to start buying development cards?
Whenever you buy a development card, it increase your options because:
Development Cards solve your problems.
And they don't, on average, actually cost 3 resources. Monopoly, Year of Plenty, and Knight all gain you at least one back, which you can choose (even somewhat when stealing with the knight). Road Building is worth 4 resources. Even if you get a victory point, how many resources do other victory points cost? Settlement is 4, City is 5. Longest Road is a lot.
Because of the low effective cost of development cards, and the gains you get from them, buying development cards actually banks your resources in a fairly fluid way, yet out of your hand so you don't have too many cards.
In short, when should you buy development cards? Anytime you can and you don't have something else you'd rather build THAT TURN. Buying the card means all the better chance of building whatever you want next turn. I buy Development Cards whenever I can.
One last note, if you are richest in sheep, development cards are probably your shortest path to victory (combined with some expansion/cities).
I generally buy developments when I have the ore-grain-sheep combination, absolutely nothing else to buy, and I have six or seven cards in my hand.
If I have to pick between losing half my cards or getting a development card.
I've had some games where the robber is on one of my hexes, I've had abysmally bad rolls and can't roll a 7, and I'll buy a development card for a chance at a Soldier.
Development cards can be nice in a larger game when you've been ringed in, and you need the VP cards just for a fighting chance to finish.
I've seen some people win with a "cities and development cards" strategy. If you have the appropriate combination of resources from your initial settlements (lots of ore and wheat), you can basically spend almost all of your resources on dev cards and cities. Dev cards can help you with the things you're weaker in; road building can help you build roads even if you're short on wood and brick, and other dev cards can help supplement your other resources.
You will need to build at least one more settlement, but you can probably trade for the resources needed for that (or get them through dev cards). And if you buy dev cards early and often, you can rack up a few secret VPs, get the largest army and get rid of the robber to help you produce more of that vital ore and wheat. In this strategy, you generally want to buy at least one city before you start buying dev cards, but after that, alternate between dev cards and cities, with just enough emphasis on your extra road and settlement to make sure it doesn't get blocked.
When you use this strategy, you don't depend on the exact outcome of two VPs, largest army, and 3 cities. You need to be flexible based on what you draw; if you draw lots of development cards that give you resources, you build out more, possibly getting 4 cities, or you might just wind up with lots of VPs and not even need the third city.
And if you draw lots of soldiers, the person I knew who played this way most often would use them to extort good trades out of people; threaten to put the robber on their best producing tiles, unless they gave him very favorable trades (he used to demand that they simply give him resources, until we noticed the rule that a trade must involve both players giving the other something). Thus, there are two paths to victory; one by VP/largest army, and one by generating lots of resources through dev cards (plus largest army; this strategy pretty much guarantees you that).
I start buying development cards when I have the resources and I am looking to break out of a stalled position. In the early part of the game, being lucky enough to draw the Year of Plenty card can really help you break out. I also buy development cards when I'm concerned I have two many cards in my hand, and I'm likely to have to discard cards if the robber comes up. If things are going well, and I'm able to keep expanding, I don't buy development cards till the game is coming to the end.
Edit
Expanded what I said to Brian Campbell in comments on his answer, if your trying to focus solely on development cards, your still going to need three settlements upgraded to cities. With only two cities, you would need to draw 4 victory points out of a possible 5, and have largest army. While it's possible, it's not probable. The odds are two much against you.
Biran's strategy of early development card buying is useful, but also emphasizes flexibility. Using developments cards that grant resources to buy more settlements is exactly what I was talking about drawing a year of plenty card early on, and a point I agree on. I personally favor focusing on getting land first, and then building cities and buying development cards. the amount of land of the map is limited, and the more of it you control, the more resources you can generate. On a flip side, the more of the land your control, the less of it your opponents can control. Settlements with low production potentials are of course less desirable, but are still worth points.
Do with what the resources your getting allow you to do. I generally focus more on development cards after the early part of the game, but if have the resources in your hand right then buy a development card. The best strategies in Catan are flexible, and usually involve combining multiple tactics. Since resources are generated by the random roll of the dice, don't be afraid to adjust your strategy based on resource availability.
The benefit of development card are constant during the game, the benefit of cities and colonies diminish each turn. Generally, I tend to favor more colonies in the beginning of the game and cities in the middle and development card at the end. Of course, depending of which number are played.
If you use your resources for many development card at the beginning, your colonies will probably be in least interesting place that if you have build them at the beginning. Other players will take the best spots.
That being said, when the dice give you what you need for a development card and you don't have the possibility to trade to be able to build a colony, you are generally better to take the card. But in the beginning, trade focusing on colonies.
There is a special case, when the wood or brick all have extreme number (2,3, 11 or 12), it will be hard for all player to get road and colonies. Investing early in several development cards can give you quick start.
Also, when you have a stop that attract the robber. Getting a few card to have a reserve of knight can be a good thing. Then you let people know that whoever steal who will get the robber back on their best spot next turn. And you do it. I you successfully deter some player to rob you, it is a worthy investment.
Buying development cards is a "slow but steady" way to win the game. It is best done when your progress has slowed to a crawl.
Early in the game, you might not want to do this, because the impact of other early moves such as founding settlements, building roads, or upgrading settlements to cities will last you the whole game. So the value of a victory point (or other "get") might be less than than doing other things.
Each development card (which costs three resources) is worth about one victory point. This is clearly the case for victory points. If you're going for largest army, you need at least three knights, sometimes four or more.
But if you have reached an impasse, buying development cards might represent the "biggest bang for the buck" (or resources). At this stage of the game, the victory points are useful, and if you don't get one, the other help that you get (knights for the largest army, two road pieces toward longest road, year of plenty or monopoly cards, might be worth a victory point (or two). Let's say four on average. That's 12 cards to get two points, or half a point per card. But in addition, you additional benefits by 1) removing the robber from your hexes, and 2) "siccing" him on others. Likewise, progress cards are worth about one victory point on average.
A settlement is one victory point and costs four cards, and a city is worth one victory point and costs five cards (in each case more than three). But besides the victory point, a new settlement gives you 2-3 new resources (and possibly a port). A new city doubles the production of your hexes. These "side" benefits, which last the balance of the game, are the reason why development cards are less valuable in the early game.
In short, look at development cards at a de-bottlenecking tool, to be used when you reach a bottleneck.
I'll buy a development card early if I'm ok on grain and sheep (position-wise), and I'm still a road away from the next settlement spot. The real bummer is if you draw a VP card early, any other card will do something for you, but that just slows you down.
It's good to have a soldier card to hold in case the robber gets set on you.
Buy a dev card when you want a knight. Getting something else is usually good too, notably except an early vp. It is good to dev when you're ahead because the robber will be played on you, or anytime you are very vulnerable to the robber. And when pursuing army.
Also, a time not to dev is when it will prevent you from getting a critical settlement or city. When the choice is between deving and ending your turn with 8+ cards, usually dev.
When you have no more important cities and settlements to place, deving becomes a priority if you have a chance to get army.
The time to buy development cards is after you have upgraded your best settlement (or possibly best two) to a city. You usually have at least one very strong settlement in the beginning, and turning this into a city is far more valuable in the early game than the two development cards that are the resource equivalent (two wheat and three ore vs two wheat, two ore, and two sheep).
Development cards are also more useful later game. Robbers are more effective when production is higher, so moving the robber is move valuable later game. Monopoly is more valuable as people have more resources, which tends to happen later game. Road building matters more when you need two roads to get somewhere, whereas your first expansion spot you can usually get to with one road.
Overall, in the early game, you want to spend your resources improving your production to capitalize on the principal of "the rich get richer". Since improving your production gives you points in Catan, it makes the tradeoff fairly straightforward. First, go for points on the board (settlements and cities), then later go for about virtual points (victory cards, largest army, longest road). Where the optimal time for the flip is will depend on the production potential of your expansion opportunities and the scores of the other players.
Buy in middle as per condition in game. If you happen to have more of bricks and logs rather focus on getting longest road as it helps at times.
If you are running out of resources to build more settlement it's best time to focus on getting few developement cards.
At start intention should be gather sure points using settlements and cities.