Finesse or Drop at trick 5?

Question

This is a problem from the "Card Play 101" column from the Feb 2021 ACBL Bridge Bulletin (page 44)

South holds: (S) 6 3; (H) A K 9 8 5 2; (D) A K 4; (C) 7 6. (West deals, E-W vulnerable, matchpoints)

The bidding goes

West	North	East	South
1 S	Pass	Pass	3H
Pass	4 H	All Pass

West leads a low spade, and the dummy (North) comes down with:

(S) 7 5 4; (H) J 10; (D) Q J 10 9; (C) K Q 10 9

East wins trick 1 with the spade A, and returns the spade 2. West wins with the K. West leads the club A which wins. West leads a low club, won by dummy's K. The question is, how should the declarer (south) continue.

South cannot afford to lose a heart trick to the Q, so should south finesse against East, or play for the drop against west?

The column author argues that since west opened with 1S, and east has already shown the spade Ace, if East had the QH as well, east would have had six HCP and would not have passed. Further, that the defenders only have 17 HCP between them, and if East had the spade A and the H Q, West would not have opened at the one level with only 11 HCP. Therefore the proper play, says the column author, is to cash the AK of H in an effort to drop the Q, as the finesse is hopeless.

However I disagree with this reasoning. If I were west and held the QH singleton or doubleton, I would discount it and pass. If as West I held KQJxxx; xxx; x; AJx; I would open 1S, even without the HQ. Therefore, it is not exactly assured that W will hold the H Q in my view. Given this, should south finesse or play for the drop? why?

Answer 1

On further consideration, while E might hold the H Q, East cannot hold the H Qxx or better, because then East would have responded to 1S, probably with 1NT. Therefore the finesse is either hopeless or pointless, because if East has the QH singleton or doubleton it will drop. Playing for the drop is still the better play, although it will fail if west has the QH in a 3 or 4 card suit. So the author was right, although the reasoning was incomplete.

Answer 2

The outstanding Spades are QJT9 in West's hand, West having already played the 8 and K to East's (original) doubleton A2.

Assuming OP hasn't misled on describing the Spade spots, the Heart Q is absolutely marked in the West hand - doubleton or singleton - by the failure of West to lead a (setting) third round of Spades at trick 4.

After winning Trick 2 with the Spade K, West was looking at the Heart Q and knows that there is no chance for a heart over-ruff of Dummy, and that Declarer is looking at 11 tricks if the potential heart loser is avoided. That is the reason for the passive cash of Club A followed by a low Club. West is trying to deceive by playing innocent.

Also, holding heart Qxx a strong West would claim down 1 after seeing the second Club won by Declarer. Lead to the Heart AK in hand and watch that doubleton Q fall.

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There is one other possibility: West holds Q 4-times in hearts.

If you trust your opponents to be capable, ruff the third Spade from hand on the board and lead the remaining Heart back to hand. This will hold you to just Down 1 when West was originally 6403 or 6412.

If West really did lead the Spade 8 from an original holding of KQJT98 then I will really expect West to come down with:

KQJT98
Qxxx
-
AJx

East has disappointed West by not finding the Diamond switch at Trick 2; but West could have made the read easier with an opening lead of the Spade Q (playing standard leads) or J (playing Rusinow leads) instead of the Spade 8 at trick 1. East is looking at 6 small Diamonds in hand and 4 in Dummy; and surely can find the correct switch once returning Spades is obviously wrong.

Answer 3

I agree with the assessment made in the article, if you assume this is aimed at beginners. Advanced players would consider E's lack of bid as more significant, and not W's choice of bid.

West has the following hand:

Suit	Cards
S	KQJTx(x)
H	(Q?)x(x)
D	xx(x)
C	A(J?)x

Or something close to that (could have Q stiff hearts and 4 diamonds, etc.)

So the question is, without the Q, can West open 1S? For beginner-level players, playing solid 1S bids, they probably would not be taught to open that 1S - they'd open that 2S with six, and not open with 5. For even intermediate players, this definitely could be opened 1S - but given this is a beginner-focused column, it makes sense it wouldn't be.

Suit	Cards
S	KQJTx
H	x
D	xxxx
C	AJx

That's a really aggressive hand to open, first seat, vulnerable. A bare eleven count, with pretty mediocre shape? Add the Qh to it, and you get something at least considerable.

Suit	Cards
S	KQJTx
H	Qx
D	xxx
C	AJx

Yes, you discount that Qh slightly, but not a full 2 points worth; and I don't necessarily add much for the singleton there, when the spades are so solid (and that x is a 9 or an 8, or maybe both).

Either way, the idea is that the balance of probabilities is with West having the Q - sure, maybe some outlier cases W doesn't, but it seems unlikely. That combined with E's lack of ability to respond after 1S despite holding Ax(x)?

I'd add to this the fact that W almost certainly has six spades, given E's lack of response. If W only has five spades, then E's even less likely to have that Q.

But if W has six, S KQJT98, and only 10-11 points, a beginner is opening that 2S.

Suit	Cards
S	KQJT98
H	xx
D	xxx
C	AJx

That's almost the textbook 2S for beginners. Yes, for more advanced players it's 1S, but at the beginner level it'll be taught to be opened 2S.