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I've played Decrypto over the weekend and wasn't impressed with it due to how big of a role luck plays in the game. For example in the very first round one can win by simply guessing all three numbers correctly, with a probability of 1 in 24. If you're certain about one word, the odds become 1 in 6, which still results in absurd situations where the opposing team guesses your code sequence while your own team doesn't.

Is there a way to completely remove luck from the equation? One idea was to force the other team to guess the exact word for each of the 4 slots, but this would potentially make the game too difficult.

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  • How do you define luck? Which specific mechanics of Decrypto do you consider to rely on luck?
    – ryanyuyu
    Nov 22 '21 at 22:42
  • @ryanyuyu in round 1 of Decrypto, you have a 1 in 24 chance of guessing the opposite teams code without actually guessing any of the words. If you know one word for certain, your odds are 1 in 6. Nov 23 '21 at 0:10
  • You didn't actually define luck. You just named some probabilities. Do you consider anything with a probability that isn't either 0 or 1 to be "luck"? I'm not trying to be pedantic here, but it's important to know what you consider to be "luck" vs "skill" in order to "completely remove luck from the equation"
    – ryanyuyu
    Nov 23 '21 at 22:59
  • @ryanyuyu ideally I'd want a version where winning by luck is impossible Nov 23 '21 at 23:09
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If I understand the rules correctly, to win just by luck, you need the other team to not get their code on their first guess, then you need to get the code by chance, and you need this to happen twice. That's not very likely. There's no way to completely remove luck without significantly changing the game, but ways to reduce it is are increasing the number of words, allowing a team to pass on guessing the other team's word and giving them a punishment if they do guess and are wrong (e.g. giving them a black mark, or giving them a gray mark, and two gray marks are worth a black one), or requiring more white marks to win.

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