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Top player: the old platinum-ranked pros, or MPL members. If there isn't enough data for this small group, I'm also interested in the old gold-ranked players.
Tournament: an open tournament with several hundred, if not thousands, of players, such as the GPs of old. Small invitationals don't count, although the former Pro Tours are borderline since they're still pretty big.
Last I saw Magic: the Gathering tournaments followed a format where everyone plays Day 1, at the end of which there is a cutoff for Day 2. At the end of Day 2 there is a cut to top 8, where single elimination matches decides a champion. For many players, making Day 2 is an achievement, and a realistic, achievable target.
I am interested in how often the best players in the game make the cutoff for Day 2. Are there statistics for this anywhere?
I asked professional player Raphael Levy and he said platinum-level pros win about 65% of their matches at this level (it drops to 60% at pro tour level). To reach day 2 one needs 7-2 or better, and platinum-level players get 3 byes, so they need to win 4 out of 6 matches or better.
We can do calculations:
p(6 wins) = 0.65^6 * 6C6 = 7.5% chance
p(5 wins) = 0.65^5 * 0.35 * 6C1 = 24.36% chance
p(4 wins) = 0.65^4 * 0.35^2 * 6C2 = 32.80% chance
Therefore they are about 64.70% to make day 2. If they didn't get three byes, then: