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Is there any definitive publication or study on statistics in bidding? Based on the rules Spades offers about bidding, in the image below, a player may bid 2 or 3.

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Ace Spades, Ace Heart, and King Heart (3).

King Heart is the trick a player may evaluate as less probable; he would bid just two.

That is one of many possible examples that can start a more deep statistical evaluation. I wonder if that evaluation has been made.

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Most of the study was made on Spade's "bigger brother" Bridge, however some work has been done on Spades as well.

In section 4.1.1 Side Suit High Cards I evaluate the value of side-suit A,K,Q according the probability that no opponent will be able to cut the first / second / third trick.

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In your example, you hold 4 hearts, therefore there is a chance of 3% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your Ace, 22.1% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your King, and 65% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your Queen.

So your intuition was right, a bidding of 2 is very safe (97%), a bidding of 3 is safe in 77.9% of the deals.

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