Questions tagged [probability]

Questions about probabilistic game mechanics and how to calculate and estimate random events, as well as how probability affects games and gameplay.

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52
votes
3answers
121k views

How do you calculate the likelihood of drawing certain cards in your opening hand?

In Magic, at the start of the game, you draw 7 cards. How would you calculate the likelihood of drawing a specific card in your opening hand? For example, let's say I have a 60 card deck, and I'm ...
10
votes
1answer
9k views

How to calculate the probability to get all cards of Exodia, the Forbidden One by drawing them from my Deck during the Draw phase?

In Yu-Gi-Oh!, there are some cards that allow to the duelist to win a duel automatically. In this case, I'm focusing my question on Exodia, The Forbidden One. To win a duel using Exodia, you must ...
16
votes
1answer
502 views

Are there statistic/probabilty applications specifically made for card game designers?

I am developing a card game that involves building out sequences of matching symbol pairs and also has a lose state for a (different set) of symbols that is hidden to the player. Trying to create an ...
12
votes
4answers
1k views

Fairness of Cowry Shells as Dice

I just learned about the use of cowry shells as binary dice and find the idea enchanting. However, I'm concerned about the apparent "fairness" of the dice. Obviously, because there are multiple ...
17
votes
5answers
2k views

How many spins does it take to complete a game of Hi Ho! Cherry-O?

I recently picked up this game for my 2-year-old daughter, who is learning how to count. I find this game fairly infuriating to play by the actual rules. It contains a spinner with the 7 following ...
3
votes
3answers
426 views

Why is 'equity' much more commonly used than 'winning probability'? What is the mathematical formula that links 'equity" and 'winning probability'?

In backgammon, people always speak about 'equity', but never about 'winning probability'. To me, 'winning probability' seems much more simple and much more intuitive than 'equity'. So why is 'equity' ...
8
votes
1answer
822 views

King of Tokyo: Complete Destruction

What is the expected number of turns required to get the required roll for Complete Destruction, given no evolutions or other cards?
6
votes
3answers
20k views

Which Faction Power will result in the greatest bonus troops and/or fewest troop losses?

Without taking into account any other packets that might be opened over the course of a game (no spoilers please, only use the starting rules, starting scars, starting stickers). 1) What is the best ...
5
votes
1answer
118 views

In Spades, what is the probability a suit is distributed in a way, given I hold n cards from that suit?

In Spades, (or any other trick taking game), when I hold n cards of a certain suit, what is the distribution of the other 13-n cards in that suit? In particular, what is the probability that ♦'s are ...
5
votes
3answers
1k views

Magic The Gathering: probability of casting a 3 drop on turn 3

So, I have a probability related question. In MTG, which is the probability of landing a 3-drop on turn 3, but using the correct combination. For example, I want to cast a Geist of Saint Traft on ...
4
votes
1answer
889 views

How do cards like Brainstorm affect the probability of drawing an out?

I posted this on a Magic forum and got zero responses. I'm playing a High Tide combo deck. Let's say I am Brainstorming with 50 cards in my deck, 23 of which are outs that make me win. I think the ...
3
votes
1answer
3k views

What's the probability of having a combo on the first turn in MTG?

I'm creating a combo deck, and I'm interested in the probability of having a certain combo on the first turn. For this combo, I need 4 different cards. There are 4 copies of each of these cards in ...