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I asked professional player Raphael Levy and he said platinum-level pros win about 65% of their matches at this level (it drops to 60% at pro tour level). To reach day 2 one needs 7-2 or better, and platinum-level players get 3 byes, so they need to win 4 out of 6 matches or better. We can do calculations: p(6 wins) = 0.65^6 * 6C6 = 7.5% chance p(5 wins) = ...

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