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Commonmark migration
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Nicol Bolas will be exiled and not return. Unearth doesn't care where the creature is going.

Unearth is a replacement effect. The event it replaces never happens:

614.1a Effects that use the word “instead” are replacement effects. Most replacement effects use the word “instead” to indicate what events will be replaced with other events.

 

614.6. If an event is replaced, it never happens. [..]

The event to be replaced is "Exile Nicol Bolas, then return him to the battlefield transformed". Exiling NB would cause him to leave the battlefield, so Unearth replaces the whole event and what happens instead is simply "Exile Nicol Bolas". Exiling Nicol Bolas this way does not return him, because the "return NB to the battlefield transformed" effect doesn't come from a triggered ability, it was part of the event that was replaced.

Nicol Bolas will be exiled and not return. Unearth doesn't care where the creature is going.

Unearth is a replacement effect. The event it replaces never happens:

614.1a Effects that use the word “instead” are replacement effects. Most replacement effects use the word “instead” to indicate what events will be replaced with other events.

 

614.6. If an event is replaced, it never happens. [..]

The event to be replaced is "Exile Nicol Bolas, then return him to the battlefield transformed". Exiling NB would cause him to leave the battlefield, so Unearth replaces the whole event and what happens instead is simply "Exile Nicol Bolas". Exiling Nicol Bolas this way does not return him, because the "return NB to the battlefield transformed" effect doesn't come from a triggered ability, it was part of the event that was replaced.

Nicol Bolas will be exiled and not return. Unearth doesn't care where the creature is going.

Unearth is a replacement effect. The event it replaces never happens:

614.1a Effects that use the word “instead” are replacement effects. Most replacement effects use the word “instead” to indicate what events will be replaced with other events.

614.6. If an event is replaced, it never happens. [..]

The event to be replaced is "Exile Nicol Bolas, then return him to the battlefield transformed". Exiling NB would cause him to leave the battlefield, so Unearth replaces the whole event and what happens instead is simply "Exile Nicol Bolas". Exiling Nicol Bolas this way does not return him, because the "return NB to the battlefield transformed" effect doesn't come from a triggered ability, it was part of the event that was replaced.

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Hackworth
Hackworth
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Nicol Bolas will be exiled and not return. Unearth doesn't care where the creature is going.

Unearth is a replacement effect. The event it replaces never happens:

614.1a Effects that use the word “instead” are replacement effects. Most replacement effects use the word “instead” to indicate what events will be replaced with other events.

614.6. If an event is replaced, it never happens. [..]

The event to be replaced is "Exile Nicol Bolas, then return him to the battlefield transformed". Exiling NB would cause him to leave the battlefield, so Unearth replaces the whole event and what happens instead is simply "Exile Nicol Bolas". Exiling Nicol Bolas this way does not return him, because the "return NB to the battlefield transformed" effect doesn't come from a triggered ability, it was part of the event that was replaced.