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This question arises from the modern practice of sometimes bidding say, 1 NT with only a singleton ace (or even king).

I would never do this with a singleton king, but might do with a singleton ace. I'm using a model that says that a singleton ace has about as much "stopper" value as xxx, with a Kx being worth a bit more, and Qx worth just a bit less. I would be reluctant to bid 1NT with xx in my weakest suit, at least unless I had compensation elsewhere in the hand.

I also don't mind bidding 1NT with a 5-4-2-2 shape if the two doubletons are reasonably well guarded, say, Kx and Ax. I would refrain from doing so if the doubletons were weaker, say Kx and xx, or conversely if they were too strong, say AK and AQ, leaving too few values for my longer suits.

Among the expert or near-expert practitioners of such offshape no trump bidding, what guidelines do they use?

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    Actually, singleton K's are better for 1N openings than singleton A's. That's not because the singleton K is good at NT - rather it's because the singleton K is worthless in a suit contract but, in a NT contract, defenders sometimes underlead or duck an A. The singleton A, however, is worth about the same at either. Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 3:00
  • Let me emphasize something. You should never be asking yourself the question "Is this a good or bad bid?" Instead you should ask yourself "Is this bid better or worse than the alternatives?" (Similarly, you should never ask "Will this contract make?" Rather you ask "Will being in this contract probabilistically score better than the alternative contract(s) (including the ones played by your opponents)?") Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 3:04
  • @AlexanderWoo Actually the singleton A is worth more in suit contracts because after you took the single trick you may be able to ruff in that suit.
    – quarague
    Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 7:15
  • I am an intermediate, but even I consider Qx doubletons to be a good excuse to bid NT at the earliest opportunity. A non-typical cases is partner having Axx (or even Kxx) opposite. If this is the opponents strongest and longest suit, you want the opening lead to come to the inadequately guarded queen rather than through it. This is often the crucial difference of having a suit doubly stopped, giving your side that much extra leeway in playing the ever favorite 3NT. Commented Oct 22, 2023 at 6:43

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Many experts now open 1N on almost all hands that are 5422 with 5 in a minor, 6322 with 6 in a minor, or 5332 with 5 in any suit, and also "in range". The primary reason is that, even playing fairly sophisticated 2/1 methods, these hands can be quite difficult to bid otherwise.

Suppose you hold xx AKJx xx AKxxx. You could open 1C, but then if partner responds 1S, what do you do? You aren't strong enough to bid 2H, rebidding 1N is a severe underbid, and 2C tends to show 6 clubs and a weaker hand.

Many experts might open 1C on AKJx xx xx AKxxx, but probably not on AQxx Kx xx AQxxx. It's easier to get to 2H on the 5-2 fit when you open 1N; when the bidding goes 1C-1H-1S, responder cannot really rebid 2H on 5 hearts and a weak hand since opener frequently has only 1 heart.

Also suppose you hold Qx Kx KQxxxx AQx. If you open 1D, you are a bit strong for 2D but your suit isn't good enough for 3D. However, xx xx AKQxxx AKx is usually considered too strong for 1N. (In contrast, many would open xx xx AKxxxx AKx or even xx xx AQxxxx AKx with a 15-17 1N.)

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  • Great coverage of the question. To address a specific aspect of the question: Am I recalling correctly that experts now look at total flaws, rather than detailed analysis or comparison of specific flaws, when considering the possibility of opening or rebidding in notrump? That seemed to be true when I was last playing regularly at this level. Commented Aug 27, 2023 at 18:20
  • @ForgetIwaseverhere: I'm no expert, but I have a proprietary measure of suit strength: Two points for each spot card with "Work" points added for each face card. So xxx is six points. A singleton A is six points,, Qx is six points, Kx is seven. So when bidding NT I want a minimum of six suit points in each suit. Also, xxx is a "half stopper." Facing its equivalent of xxx in partner's hand, opponents will have only a 4-3 suit 62% of the time. Qx is a Half stopper. Opposite Kx or Jxx, the suit is stopped.
    – Tom Au
    Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 1:05
  • Kx and Ax. are my "optimal" doubletons. I would bid 1NT (reluctantly with Kx and Qx. I would probably do so up to AJ and AQ (but I would want 17). Beyond that, I consider the two short suits too "top heavy."
    – Tom Au
    Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 1:11
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    @ForgetIwaseverhere: I think it's better to consider how flawed the hand is for a 1 of a minor opening rather than consider how flawed the hand is for 1N. We open these hands 1N not because they are good for 1N but rather because opening 1 of a minor can cause so many problems. I'm the wrong person to ask because I'm not an expert and my most serious bridge has been with a weak NT, where the rebid problems (especially with 5422 hands) are even bigger. Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 2:42
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    @TomAu: Meckstroth and Rodwell are well known for having won many national and world championships by bidding lots of 30% games. Between the times when it makes on a lucky lie of the cards and the times it makes on a misdefence, they come out ahead. Of course it helps that they are good deceptive declarers who make defenders think a lot, and, at the end of a session, they get a few extra gifts because their opponents are worn out from having to make so many difficult and important defensive decisions. Commented Aug 28, 2023 at 2:52

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