Should N-S be in 3NT if not vulnerable?

Question

This hand was presented by Michael Berkowitz in the column of Larry Cohen. These are experts I consider on the "aggressive side. Both vulnerable, the bidding was

South West  North East
1d    Pass  2d    pass 
2NT   Pass  3NT   pass 

(North's 2d was an inverted minor raise.)

The hands were:

North
s: A93
h: KQJ
d: QJ74
c: T83

South
s: JT72
h: A75
d: K832
c: A6

Berkowitz characterized this as a "normal 3NT with 13 opposite 12." But North has a 4-3-3-3 distribution, so shouldn't "12" really be 11, and "25" really be 24?

Sources such as this give N-S only a 37% of making 3NT with only 24 points. This includes hands with "24" that are really 23, not hands that are "25" really 24. Making this adjustment, the chances of success are about 40%. Using IMPS scoring, that's good enough, when vulnerable.

But Berkowitz/Cohen didn't make a qualifier for when one is non vulnerable. Should such a qualifier have been made? Am I right to feel misled by an assurance that this hand is a solid, rather than borderline, 3NT bid when "25" points is more like 24 because of the 4-3-3-3 distribution?

Answer 1

I think that your adjustment to HCP is perfectly fine for your own purposes, but it's not within the technical definition of "high card points" (which solely include the 4/3/2/1 point count, or whatever other numbers you want to assign each honor) and exclude distribution points. You're well within rights to consider distribution; but many automated programs will solely focus on HCP, including the link you sent, as far as I can tell - so when they say that two balanced hands with 25 points are optimally in 3NT, they mean the hand above to be in that collection.

I'd also say that those two hands look fine in 3NT. They're both solid hands with dense honors yet still largely controlling the suits; little wasted value ("Jxxx" type stuff) and lots of T/9/8s also to round out the hands. North can count 4 tricks in their hand even with basically nothing of value in South, and South similarly can count 3.5 tricks at least in theirs again with absolutely no help from North - 4 if you consider the diamond length to make the K fairly safe. Each expecting the other to have 4 solo tricks plus one trick from fitting honors seems reasonable, don't you think?

Answer 2

You can't just mix-and-match how you count the hands - consistency is key. HCP alone is easy, so consider a full evaluation for the two hands:

North:
- 13 HCP
- -1 for 4333
- -0.5 for the Heart shape
- +0.5 for the Spade 9 and Club 8

Total: 11.5 Pts

South:
- 12 HCP
- +1 for 4432
- Offsetting plus/minus for the weak Diamonds vs Spade 10

Total: 13.0 Pts

Yes; according to Goren (and many others) one absolutely counts one for the doubleton of a 4432 hand, even in NT - as it represents the advantage, both in suits and NT, of either two 4-card suits or one five-card suit as might apply.

One might quibble that 11.5 is not 12 - but every good player I've ever known has always rounded up an extra 0.5 after all considerations have been made.

Also, defending this hand correctly is non-trivial. Both North and South have denied major Suit interest; making it easy for West to lead the wrong black suit when the Spade honours are split and East has a broken Club suit without the Diamond Ace. Then a simple false card of the Spade 7 by South at Trick One might give the Defense conniptions.

Answer 3

There are lots of good comments in this article, but also I feel 'some inaccuracies.

First start with the punchline and get it out the way: the hand is very likely to going down, with opponents more than likely in 5-3 club fit and club lead or a club-switch the odds-on favourite, it's hard to avoid 5 losers. But this was not an article about how to bid failing hands, rather, its about how to recover when you've bid one with negligible 5% chance. It's better to bid to a solid contract in the first place! (And that 7S discard only makes the clubs switch marginally less obvious on the off-chance it was a 4-4 club split)

Looking closer at the hands themselves: The biggest weakness I see in the hands is the wasted hearts points although its hard to locate. 'Forget..' sensibly deducts points from KQJ in hearts and 4333 shape. Although Personally I wouldn't add a point for south's doubleton in NT, it's only useful when in a 3D suit contract.

North doesnt have enough to upgrade his hand. Certainly not enough for 3NT raise over 2NT. North could invite over 2NT with 3C* on that bare minimum 11-12 but south ought to refuse with 12 points and exit to 3D.

While Norths hand started out as a normal and reasonable 13 point opener, the bidding led this to be downgraded to a minimum, and the hands should only reach 2NT or maybe 3D after bidding.

I think the moral here, is that when you have an invitational hand, make sure YOU invite your partner don't get into the situation where you have to make that decision for yourself. And, if an invitational hand is inviting another invitational hand, then the answer is NO.

Answer 4

North-South should 100% be in 3NT.

If you could see both hands, you wouldn't want to be in 3NT. One of the joys of bridge is that the auction only gives you a small amount of information about partner's hand. and in this case you can't get enough information to avoid bidding game.

In Standard American and 2/1 (and most any other system, for that matter), there's no such thing as a 4432 12-count that shouldn't open the bidding. You give up too much equity otherwise. Likewise, in Standard American and 2/1, there's no such thing as a 13-count that shouldn't force to game after partner opens at the one level. Choosing to invite with 13 HCP gives up too much. It makes you miss too many good games.

Once that is clear, we can ask: Is this the right auction to get to 3NT? I don't think so. There's no particular reason that North should raise diamonds with only four cards in the suit and no ruffing values. I would make whatever call shows a balanced minimum game force in my agreements (likely 3NT or 2NT).

The bad news is that 3NT in this case is likely to go down. A spade lead practically guarantees a make, a club lead practically guarantees a set.

The good news is that you'll have plenty of company. The pairs that avoided 3NT on this board are likely chucking match points away on all the other boards.