In Gin-Rummy, how likely is that a round ends in a Draw?

In Gin-Rummy, when the deck reach the last two cards and no player have knocked, the rounds end in a draw. In games of experts, or at least experienced players, how often a round ends in a draw? I would like to get an estimation of an expert.

• Playing To the Wall in a Defensive Manner explains well when it is smart to play for the wall.

• Terminology: a game consist of several rounds; a round consist of several turns. A game can never end in a draw, since in each round only a single player receive points.

• Are you assuming that experienced players will knock if they can, (whether at the first opportunity or when they see the draw pile getting low)? In that case we'd be looking for an estimate of how often you can get through the pack with neither player being able to knock at any point, and assuming they made a reasonable decision every turn. Commented Jun 14, 2023 at 15:41
• yes, I agree. I would like to see some data set of experts players and their likelihood to hit the Wall. Commented Jun 14, 2023 at 18:30
• I can't help you there, then. I'm a novice, learning it with my daughter. I considered whether it might be possible to model a round. Probabilities are one thing but modelling the decision-making process is another Commented Jun 14, 2023 at 19:48
• That said, it must be pretty rare. Whenever we've got near the end of the draw pile, one or both of us has always been able to go out, and for a while, but been trying to reduce deadwood (often chasing the same cards). But "pretty rare" wouldn't be much of an answer Commented Jun 14, 2023 at 19:51